By Lisa James

Lisa James is a Research Fellow at the Constitution Unit at the University College London.

Tomorrow, the UK public will go to the polls. But the general election takes place in a climate of public distrust of politics, and against a backdrop of ethics scandals and the weakening of constitutional norms. What should we expect from the next government?

The UK’s general election campaign is in its final days, as the country prepares to vote on 4 July. The campaign has often been unedifying. The UK’s gambling regulator is investigating allegations of insider betting by candidates and party officials. During a key TV debate, the Conservative Party Twitter/X feed rebranded itself ‘Tax Check UK’, apparently mimicking impartial fact-checking services. More fundamentally, both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have been accused of failing to be honest with the public about the scale of the challenges facing the country, and the tough choices they will demand from the next government.

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The election follows a period marked by political scandals, with research published during the campaign period finding public trust in politics to be at record lows. Prime Minister Boris Johnson – who won the 2019 election with a commanding majority – was forced to resign in 2022 following numerous controversies, most notably over parties held in Downing Street 10 at the height of the COVID pandemic. Ministers and numerous MPs have also stepped down amid scandal.

But such episodes – although highly visible and sometimes consequential – have been just one element of a more general erosion of norms.

 In recent years, observers in the UK have highlighted a seemingly growing impatience from government with the checks imposed by other institutions. Parliament has been increasingly side-lined, with controversial measures rushed through. Legislation has been passed that experts argue places the UK in breach of its international obligations. The civil service and BBC have come under fire from politicians. This provides significant scope for the winner of Thursday’s election to strengthen constitutional, as well as ethical, standards.

The Labour Party’s pledges

Consistent polling throughout the campaign strongly suggests that the most likely result on Thursday is a large Labour majority in the House of Commons, and the formation of a new Labour government.

On the topic of standards, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has sought to differentiate himself from his Conservative rivals. The Labour manifesto promises various measures relating to the standards system, combining some welcome pledges to strengthen existing regulators with a vaguer commitment to set up a new body (with a remit and purpose that are yet to be determined). Some key changes called for by experts, though, are missing – particularly measures to safeguard regulators’ independence by providing a statutory underpinning for those that currently lack it.

More broadly, the Labour manifesto seems to promise a different attitude to external constraints and critics, accusing the Conservatives of undermining British soft power by attacking ‘universities, courts and the BBC’.

Labour has committed to keeping the UK in the European Convention on Human Rights – something the Conservative manifesto is at best lukewarm about – and in a July 2023 speech Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy pledged that under a Labour government ‘ministers will be bound to comply with international law’. The manifesto also commits to involving the independent Office of Budget Responsibility in major fiscal events (part a statement about openness to scrutiny, and part a reminder that Conservative former Prime Minister Liz Truss refused OBR analysis of her disastrous ‘mini-budget’). A key manifesto pledge on parliament is for a Modernisation Committee to look at potential reforms to both ethics and procedure in the Commons. But much of the sidelining of parliament has been rooted in government behavior, and importantly in a May 2024 speech Shadow Leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell roundly criticized the Conservative government’s attitude to parliamentary scrutiny, and promised different behavior by a future Labour government.

The delivery challenge

The key test will of course lie in a new government’s behavior in office. Standards scandals are inevitable, and whatever changes are made to regulators’ powers, the final decisions on sanctioning ministerial wrongdoing will likely remain in the Prime Minister’s hands.

Checks and balances will perhaps always look more appealing from the opposition than the government benches. So, a new government’s attitude and response to setbacks in the courts, or adverse findings by regulators, will be crucial.

Telling, too, will be its approach to scrutiny by parliament – will the government encourage the new Modernisation Committee seriously to consider reforms that might strengthen scrutiny in the Commons at the expense of executive control? And will it deliver the change of legislative behavior it has promised, even if a large Commons majority might allow it to do otherwise?

Labour has made a number of broadly promising commitments to strengthen ethical standards and support checks on the executive. Barring a surprise from the electorate on Thursday, the party will now have to deliver.