By Gil D. Turingan
Gil D. Turingan is a Bangkok resident and a newly minted Ph.D. in Thai Studies at the Thai Studies Center, Faculty of Arts, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand. He specializes in contemporary Thai topics such as Thai democracy, student movements, and public monuments. His doctoral thesis focuses on the discourse of Thai democracy and student movement in Thailand.
Youth have played a significant role in the recent social movements in Southeast Asia. However, these hopeful moments seem brief as the young descendants of past political leaders emerge and continue to hold power. This clash of two forms of youth participation raises concerns about the nature of contemporary movements and represents a missed opportunity for democracy in breaking the cycle of political dynasties.
The youth, often seen as a beacon of hope and positive change, have been instrumental in the recent wave of social movements across Southeast Asia. These movements, driven by fresh perspectives and dynamism, have been striving to bring societal reforms and spark progressive change. However, the recent emergence of the descendants of former political leaders in Southeast Asia has sparked deep concerns about the dwindling status of democracy in the region. Particularly evident in Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines, these new leaders, symbolizing unprecedented political dynastism, now have the potential to overshadow the youth movements’ efforts. This trend raises pressing questions about—and poses serious threats to—the future of democracy in the region.
On August 18, 2024, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, also known as Ung Ing, from the Pheu Thai Party, became Thailand’s 31st Prime Minister. This came a year after Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the now-defunct Move Forward Party, which had emerged as the top party in the 2023 general election, was denied the position. Subsequently, the Constitutional Court of Thailand dissolved the Move Forward Party, citing threats to the constitutional monarchy and national security. They also recently removed Srettha Thavisin from the Prime Minister’s position due to ethical concerns. These developments ultimately paved the way for Ung Ing to assume leadership in Thailand after the end of the 2014 to 2023 military government, headed by Prayut Chan-o-cha, who staged a coup against her aunt. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, at 38, is Thailand’s youngest Prime Minister and is personally connected to several controversial political figures such as her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, her uncle-in-law Somchai Wongsawat, and her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra.
Meanwhile, in Indonesia, 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of former Indonesian President Joko Widodo, is set to assume the role of Vice President this October. He will work together with his running mate President-elect, Prabowo Subianto. Gibran will become the youngest Vice President of Indonesia following a controversial ruling by the Constitutional Court that lowered the minimum age requirement for Indonesian presidential and vice-presidential candidates who have political experience.
In 2022, Filipinos also elected Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., the son of former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who ransacked and ruled the country for two decades. Alongside him, Sara Duterte, the daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte, was elected vice president. Notably, Rodrigo Duterte is currently under investigation by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes and extrajudicial killings during his administration, particularly associated with his controversial “War on Drugs” campaign.
Unlike Paetongtarn and Gibran, Bongbong Marcos and Sara Duterte are not relatively young. However, young members of their families are being cultivated to continue their political legacies and potentially vie for the country’s highest positions. For instance, Sandro Marcos, who, at 30 years old, is the eldest son of Bongbong Marcos and currently serves as the representative of Ilocos Norte’s first congressional district. Additionally, Baste Duterte, aged 36, who is the younger brother of Sara Duterte, presently holds the position of mayor of Davao City.
Political dynasties have been a prominent feature in Southeast Asian politics since a long time and, therefore, poses a perennial challenge across the region. Various scholars have long identified these political families as obstacles to democracy, as they foster corruption within the system and further entrench hereditary patron-client relationships. In “Anarchy of Families: State and Family in the Philippines,” Alfred W. McCoy underscored the impact of family-based oligarchies on the Filipino economy and politics. He detailed how elite families accumulated wealth, influenced public institutions, and extended their power across generations. Similarly, Yoshinori Nishizaki’s “Dynastic Democracy: Political Families in Thailand” explained how Thailand’s elite political families fundamentally shaped the country’s political landscape and contributed to political instability due to familial alliances and competition. Within such relationships there is a mutual agreement between the patron, who holds power–such as the new generation leaders from the political dynasties–and the client, who, in this case are the constituents who benefit from the patron’s support or influence.
Amidst the presence of young activists and student movements striving to reform the traditional ways in the region, concerns arise as the young political figures from political dynasties also ascend to power and potentially overshadow the efforts of the youth movement with their political capital and advantage.
For example, the emergence of the 2020 student movement in Thailand challenged the current Thai political system. It ignited discussion on the most controversial issues, including the proposed reforms in the constitutional monarchy system. While the youth represent the potential for progress within a nation, the prevalence of young individuals from affluent political families and dynastic backgrounds running in public office raises the question:
To what extent can these legacy leaders genuinely bring change in the system? Or, will they continue to carry the perennial challenge of political dynasties for the benefit of their families?
While political dynasties and their supporters may argue that they advocate the continuation of successful projects and emphasize the successors’ individuality to distance them from the wrongdoings of their predecessors, it’s hard to overlook the fact that their increasing power still has repercussions in a democratic society that can cause concern for everyone.
First, perpetuating these dynasties can lead to a lack of diversity in political perspectives, hindering the democratic process and the genuine representation of the people’s interests.
This political trend of electing the young descendants of former leaders limits opportunities for other qualified, competent, and capable individuals. Instilling change and promoting reforms becomes more challenging when the same entrenched political families retain control of the government machinery.
As a former student leader and as someone who interacts with the young generation through teaching, I observed that many young leaders have potential but need more political infrastructure and resources to compete in elections and challenge prominent dynasties at the local and community levels.
Another critical concern associated with the rise of these emerging leaders from the political dynasties is the potential for conflicts of interest in their decision-making process.
It’s difficult to ignore the possibility that these leaders are heavily influenced by their families and thus motivated by personal interests, leading to ethical dilemmas, corruption, and a breach of public trust. This situation also provides an opportunity for the family to redeem their public image, contributing to historical amnesia of the citizenry that underpins the culture of nepotism.
Such individuals are now often referred to as ‘nepo babies’ on social media platforms, highlighting the fact that their opportunities have been granted through familial connections and networks rather than genuine merit.
The recent rise of former leaders’ children is a cause for concern in the region, especially in the Philippines. Recent surveys suggest that these dynasties could potentially dominate in upcoming elections and have a family gathering in the Philippine Senate next year, raising valid concerns about the status of democracy in the country. As ordinary Filipinos struggle with their living conditions, maybe it’s time to consider supporting alternative candidates rather than those from entrenched political families in the upcoming local and senatorial elections.
The latest wave of youth movements in Southeast Asia challenging traditional regimes has demonstrated the potential of young people to drive societal change and reform in the region. This potential was evident when the Thai student movement re-emerged in 2020, Filipino youth mobilized in 2022 to oppose the return of the Marcoses to power, and Indonesian students protested and campaigned for fair elections in 2024. However, these moments of hope appear to be short-lived as traditional regimes and political dynasties continue to dominate. This is a significant cause for concern as it represents a missed opportunity for democracy to break the cycle of nepotism and instead usher in new, capable leaders who could enhance the lives of the ordinary? people. Given the entrenched patron-client relationships in Southeast Asian societies, addressing this harsh reality requires further contemplation and determination to sustain the momentum of the youth movement and overcome the challenges of political dynasties in the region.
