How can a democracy emerge from authoritarian rule when those who hold power fear what comes next? In the new episode of our series produced in partnership with the Journal of Democracy, Gabriel Pereira speaks with José Ramón Morales-Arilla about the challenges of democratic transition in Venezuela. The conversation is based on the article “How to Secure Venezuelan Democracy,” published in the April 2026 issue of the Journal of Democracy.
Drawing on economic theory and comparative experiences, Morales-Arilla argues that the key obstacle is not simply political disagreement, but a deeper problem of credibility: regime insiders may resist change if they expect sweeping retribution.
The conversation explores how concepts such as adverse selection and signaling help explain this dynamic, and what it would take for democratic leaders to build trust with key actors. It also introduces a novel framework for transitional justice—one that differentiates between actors based on both responsibility and strategic importance.
At stake is a difficult but unavoidable question: can “imperfect justice” provide a realistic path toward democracy, or does it risk undermining its very foundations?
José Ramón Morales-Arilla is a Research Professor at Tecnológico de Monterrey’s Graduate School of Government and Public Transformation.
The interview was conducted by Gabriel Pereira. Lilit Hakobyan edited the audio file.
