In this new episode of our special series produced in collaboration with the Journal of Democracy, we discuss with Saeid Golkar his latest essay “Why IRGC is the war’s Biggest Winner” published in the July issue of the Journal of Democracy. Professor Golkar argues that Iran’s wars, security crises, and political upheavals have gradually transformed the IRGC from a revolutionary militia into a powerful institution that increasingly functions as a “state within the state.”
Rather than weakening authoritarian rule, external threats have expanded the Guards’ political, economic, intelligence, and security roles, steadily reducing meaningful civilian control and shifting the balance away from elected and clerical institutions. This has contributed to Iran’s evolution from an ideologically driven theocracy toward a more security-centered authoritarian system, particularly as leadership succession approaches. While a cohesive IRGC may make the regime more resilient in the short term, its growing dominance can also create elite rivalries, public alienation, and new internal vulnerabilities. The broader lesson is that militarization does not always occur through coups, as the Iranian case shows. The military can gradually absorb state functions while preserving the formal appearance of civilian and constitutional institutions.
Saeid Golkar is the UC Foundation associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee-Chattanooga, a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), and a writing fellow at the Middle East Forum. He previously held research and teaching positions at Stanford University and Northwestern University.
This interview was conducted by Anubha Anushree. Alina Young edited the audio file.
