The Dependence Paradox: Why Did Low-Educated Voters in Hungary Disproportionately Vote for Fidesz?

By Vera Messing and Judit Durst Electoral data in Hungary reveal that the most vulnerable populations – with some exceptions – continued to support Fidesz. This piece addresses the most predominant explanations of this phenomenon: media isolation and clientelism. We also address what it will take for political change to reach marginalized communities. Walking through the streets of a village in Northern Hungary on a beautiful spring day on April 12, 2026, there was no hint of the election result that would soon sweep away Fidesz’s 16 years of autocratic rule. Signs of election fraud were sometimes clearly visible: a local “construction contractor” sitting in a car in front of the polling station, checking a list – likely the list of voters – to see who had voted and who still needed to be mobilized; people driving to the sports field after casting their ballots, where money changed hands. Still, the election day proceeded in a calm manner. Most of the villagers were convinced that Fidesz would win. The village’s population can effectively be divided into two groups: an elderly and ageing ethnic Hungarian population and the predominantly young inhabitants of the segregated Roma part of the settlement. Several political scientists have argued that the recent parliamentary election in Hungary was more than just an ordinary election: it was an “electoral revolution” that swept away Fidesz’s autocratic regime with a voter turnout (77.8%) never seen before. The Fidesz party, which has held a supermajority for its 16 years in government, failed spectacularly despite boasting power over all segments of life – including the economy, the media, science, the secret service, and state institutions – as well as the open support of both the United States and Russia. Yet, having spent the day of the election in this village, it became evident to us why this “electoral revolution” left such marginalized rural areas untouched. The village is typical: a map of voting behavior reveals a clear spatial pattern. In areas where a high proportion of the population has low educational attainment (a proxy for social marginalization), Fidesz is more likely to have won. A substantial number of these areas are characterized by aging populations and/or a high proportion of Roma residents, a racialized ethnic minority subject to institutional discrimination and social exclusion. This analysis argues that electoral processes cannot be considered fully free or fair for this segment of the population. The figure below shows the relationship between low educational attainment (8 years of elementary or less) and voting behavior at the settlement level. Each circle represents one of Hungary’s 3,155 settlements (irrespective of their size). There is a direct, almost linear positive relationship between the proportion of low-educated people and support for Fidesz (orange) or the Tisza Party (blue) at the settlement level. The higher the proportion of low-educated people in a settlement, the higher the vote share for Fidesz. The opposite was true for Tisza. However, the relationship is not universal: Tisza Party was also popular in several settlements […]